Porsches up, Ferraris down
Auctions Commentary from CCFS Market Analyst Richard Hudson-Evans
Porsches went up by nearly 5% in September, report the Historic Automobile Group, although after falls in the prices actually achieved for collector Porsches in recent months, their HAG1 P index recorded more restrained 3.22% growth in prices paid for Porsches during the first nine months of the year to date.
The latest Porsche index hike was boosted by the £4.59m investment in the future of a never raced or rallied 1956 550/1500 Rennsport time warp in the Bonhams tent at the Goodwood Revival and the £1m more than forecast achieved by RM Sotheby’s for a 1995 911 GT2 in Battersea Park during September. In the more mainstream 911 market too, a mid to high estimate £28,600 was forthcoming at CCA in the WEC for a 1996 Type 993 with ‘Turbo tail’ on BBS-style alloys, and a £14,600 over guide price £39,600 was required to land a purer 1995 Type 993 Carrera 2 at Brightwells Leominster.
But while last month also saw stronger trading for Top Car sales in general with the HAGI Top recording a rise of nearly 1% in September and 4.65% growth in prices for the year to date, the previously rampant market for Ferrari Prancing Horses cooled by 1.55%. Although Ferraris prices have nonetheless still gone up by 4.5% since the start of the year. Not as much though as those paid for classic Mercedes. For the HAGI M-B increased by 0.33% in September and has clocked growth in collector Mercedes-Benz prices of 6.18% this year to date.
What will happen next to prices, and the sentiment that drives prices up and down, will be out of all our hands and will depend on a much bigger picture, of course. For while Sterling has plummeted by 20% in one year and the £ is at a 31 year low to the US $, which has made UK exports and collector vehicles priced in Sterling very competitively priced for those paying in stronger currencies, imported food, car parts and diesel now cost considerably more. Prices for most things we need to buy can only rise in sympathy.
Loads of spare money, much of which used to be invested in lower than inflation interest financial services products and has been diverted into alternative investments, such as classic cars, has recently been poured into buying up equities which have soared to just shy of their record high. And despite the uncharted uncertainty of impending Brexit without a definite plan in place, and completely bucking the economic fact of life that a strong economy has to have a strong currency, amazingly, the UK has become the fastest growing economy in the G7.
The latest SMMT figures confirm a low interest rate fuelled 66-plate boom, total new car sales an all-time record in September, up 1.6% compared to the same month in 2015. In England (better paid than devolved Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland), 1.88% more new cars sold last month, 3.16% more for the first nine months - while during the same politically unstable period, UK total new car registrations increased by 2.6% and over 2m new cars have sold in 2016 so far. Market leaders Ford also sold more Commercial Vehicles last month than ever before. Chinese owned MG Motor UK enjoyed a 34% increase in registrations over their September 2015 total, Renault their best sales results in 8 years.
More environmentally incorrect classics than ever before meanwhile continue to pour into the classic car sales catalogues by the transporter full. Never have there been so many auction dispersal and buying opportunities for consumers who are currently spoiled for choice. And where vendors’ reserves are realistic and their classic chips are successfully cashed in, reasonable sale rates and some strong prices encourage more of the same. Although no market has ever churned without end before and some sort of a slow-down, if not a correction, should be factored into rainy day planning.